The Phillies currently have 59 players invited to the big league camp. They will use the grape fruit league games to decide what 25 will go north with the team in late March. While 59 are in camp, I would guess that only about 35 have a realistic chance of making the team. There are 19 players in camp as non-roster invitee's. This means that they are not on the Phillies 40 man roster and would have to be added if they were to make the team.
It seems as though the term rosterology has gained some steam since I used the term in a blog in 2011. I'm not saying I invented the word, but I don't recall it being used before then.
Locks: (8) Howard, Rollins, M. Young, Kratz, Revere, Brown, Mayberry, Frandsen,
Brown: He is getting to the age that minor league ab's are not going to help him. It's time the former top prospect gets a chance to sink or swim. With D. Young likely to start the sesaon on the DL, the RF job will be his to lose during the spring.
Mayberry: He is out of options, so he can't be sent to the minors without clearing waivers. JMay is not an everyday player but he can play all 3 OF postions and 1st baseball and gives the Phillies a RH bat with some pop off the bench. His ability to play center assures his spot on the roster.
Likley: (4) Utley, RUF, Galvis, Nix
Utley: Some may think I'm crazy or pessimistic for not putting Utley in with the "Locks" He is slated to play in the inter-squad game tomorrow and in the team's Grape Fruit League Opener Saturday, he has already taken ground balls without a stool and he has talked to the media. But as I've stated before, "I'll believe Utley will start Opening Day when I see him at 2nd on April 1st in Atlanta." It looks like he will be ready on Opening Day but its far from a lock.
Ruf: Charlie has already stated he loves Ruf. Like Brown, Ruf's chances have increased wiht the likely hood of Young starting the season on the DL, but unlike Brown. Ruf hasn't had a lot of AB's above AA. While I think he is will head north with the team, he isn't a lock.
Galvis: It wouldn't hurt the young IF to get some regular AB's at AAA. But the team doesn't have any better options for there Utility IF. Frandsen can't be relied upon to play SS and their other options are non roster invitee's Michael Martinez and Yuniesky Bentancourt. Charlie has already stated he wants him on the roster.
"Does he help us giving us 300 at-bats here, or 500 at-bats in the minor leagues?" Manuel said, "I say being on our team, getting 300 at-bats."
Nix: I considered putting Nix as a lock but decieded not to simply because he doesn't have a long term future with the team. I think he is very close to being a lock. He is there only experiened option as LH bat off the bench. Nix isn't quite a lock, but he's as close as you can be.
Inside Track: (1) Quintero
Quintero: This may actually be the only position player roster spot that is up for grabs. While Ruiz is serving his suspension during the 1st 25 games. The team will need someone to backup Kratz. Quintero has spent a lot of his career as a backup catcher and had 140 AB's with the Royals last season. I doubt the Phillies would want to promote either youngsters Valle or Joseph for just a short period. Steven Lerud is another option, but the 28 year old didn't have any AB'
s before having 10 at the end of the season with the Phillies last year.
Locks: (7) Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, PapleBon, Durbin, Bastardo
Likely:(2) Lannan, Adams
Lannan: It would take a very poor spring for Lannen to not make the roster. He was signed to be the team's 5th starter and I would expect him to get the job. But I don't think there are many 5th starters in the league that are guaranteed anything. Youngsters Cloyd and Pettibone are next in line if Lannan fails.
Adams: Like Utley, I decided to put Adams here because of injury concerns. The team has stated that they expect Adams to be ready. But he is recovering surgery to treat thoracic outlet syndrome.
Up for Grabs: (3) Aumont, Horst, Diekman
The remaining 3 spots in the pen is going to be a great compittion. There are so many factors and the team has a lot of good options. I think these 3 have the best chances as of right now but will have to beat out the likes of Stues, , Valdes, Rosenberg, and Schimmer I think Aumont has the best "stuff" out of the group.
The final spot is more difficult. If its a guy like De Fratus, who is the long man? Rosenberg and Schwimmer could fill that role but is it worth having an inferior guy on the roster in the event you need multiple innings? Horst served as the team's long man at the end of last seaosn. So if he is indeed the long man, the team will need another lefty. That would mean its down to Diekman, Valdes and Rule 5 draftee Mauricio Robles. As much as the Phils love Rule 5 draftee's, I can't see them keeping Robles. Diekman isn't as consistent but he is a nightmare matchup for left handed hitters.
BLN's Opening Day Roster:
Rollins, Young, Utley, Howard, Ruf, Brown, Kratz, Revere, SP
Quintero, Galvis, Frandsen, Nix, Mayberry
Hamels, Halladay, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan
Paplebon, Adams, Bastardo, Durbin, Aumont, Diekman, Horst